Every hour, three species go extinct on Earth, be they plants or animals. We lost a couple while I wrote this. And by this time next week, the planet will be down 500 more.

That’s the latest estimate today in a Reuters story, which cites global warming, clearing of forests and other human activities as blameworthy. A great headline, for sure. And a frightening first few paragraphs. But, let’s back up a bit.
I mentioned yesterday that polar bears might be threatened by climate change. Today we reported that whales and dolphins might not fare well. And recently we summarized Earth’s not-so-rosy future based on changes that might occur. The science is generally as solid as we can hope in many of these sorts of predictions, but it’s important to remember that they are just predictions. And there seem to be more of them every day.
Prognostication, speculation and even guesstimation has become standard fare for “future of the environment” stories. And while much of the speculation is well grounded in data, observations and compelling computer modeling, today’s Reuters story is noteworthy because it talks about things that are happening, as opposed to things that might happen.

“Biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate,” U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement.

HOWEVER—and this is a big however—there are no good data or facts to back the “3 per hour” figure. In fact, only 784 species are officially recorded as having gone extinct since the year 1500. That’s only 284 more than the are supposed to disappear in the next week! The frightening estimate of 3 per hour (which can mysteriously multiply out to anywhere from 18,000 to 55,000 per year depending on who is doing the math) is based on assumptions of habitat loss and the species that might have lived there, including species not yet discovered but presumed to exist based on discovery rates and other techniques.

All great stuff for generating fascinating numbers, but a skeptical reader won’t buy any of it. We’re being asked to believe, and science that depends on belief is, well, I think they call that religion.

If scientists and government officials and Al Gore and the media reps and the journalists want the world’s populace (who have lots on their minds) to pay attention, and even possibly to rally around all these supposedly disappearing creatures, then they need to do a better job of putting names and faces on the dead and dying.